向星座论开炮！鄙视一切星座论！
本文是转载的。主要分两部分，第一部分Forer Effect，讲的是只要个性分析足够general，包括足够多的好话，大家总觉得是很精确得描述了自己，事实上大家拿到的都是同样的分析。
第二部分是1985年发表于Nature杂志的文章（世界上最权威的科学期刊之一），对星座论进行了双盲测试，测试结果表明，即使是“星座学家”，根据每个人的标准个性测试来判断星座，成功率和随机选择的概率是基本吻合的。（也就是看个性判断星座，和瞎猜，成功率基本一致）
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几年前我是一个笃信星座的人，跟陌生人见面，头两句话里就会问：你是什么星座的？
找男朋友也是非水相星座的不考虑。直到有一天接触Forer Effect (Barnum Effect)，
才重新审视我信奉了颇久的星相。以下是转自wiki的内容：
Forer's demonstration
In 1948, psychologist Bertram R. Forer gave a personality test to his
students, and then gave them a personality analysis supposedly based on the
test's results. He invited each of them to rate the analysis on a scale of 0
(very poor) to 5 (excellent) as it applied to themselves: the average was 4
.26. He then revealed that each student had been given the same analysis:
Forer effect
You have a need for other people to like and admire you, and yet you
tend to be critical of yourself. While you have some personality weaknesses
you are generally able to compensate for them. You have considerable unused
capacity that you have not turned to your advantage. Disciplined and self-
controlled on the outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure on the
inside. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the
right decision or done the right thing. You prefer a certain amount of
change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions
and limitations. You also pride yourself as an independent thinker; and do
not accept others' statements without satisfactory proof. But you have found
it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. At times you are
extroverted, affable, and sociable, while at other times you are
introverted, wary, and reserved. Some of your aspirations tend to be rather
unrealistic.
Forer effect
Forer had assembled this text from horoscopes.
你看看上面的描述是不是很像你自己呢？Forer Effect 是指人们倾向于相信别人对自
己性格的模糊的分析。比如说，说一些大家都爱听的话：你很忠诚，重感情。或者说一
些模棱两可的话：你有时候比较喜欢自我空间，有时候又喜欢呼朋唤友。又或者说一些
大部分人都有的特点：你喜欢思考问题。
以下是一篇Nature文章的abstract，对星座准确性的测试：
TITLE: A double-blind test of astrology. PUBLICATION YEAR: 1985 LANGUAGE:
English AUTHOR: Carlson,-Shawn AUTHOR AFFILIATION: Carlson, Shawn: Lawrence
Berkeley Labs, Berkeley, CA SOURCE: Nature-. Vol 318(6045) Dec 1985, 419-425
. PUBLISHER: United Kingdom: Nature Publishing Group URL-PUBLISHER: http://www.nature.com/ ISSN (PRINT VERSION): 0028-0836 PUBLICATION TYPE: Journal; Peer-Reviewed-Journal
ABSTRACT: Tested the accuracy of astrological natal charts in describing the
personality traits of 193 Ss (aged 17+ yrs). In Exp I, Ss provided
information from which their natal charts and interpretations were
constructed by astrologers. Each S then attempted to select his/her own
natal chart interpretation from a group consisting of his/her own and 2
others. In Exp II, the astrologers were separately given the natal chart of
a random S and a California Psychological Inventory (CPI) description of the
S's personality traits along with CPI descriptions of 2 other Ss. The
astrologers selected the 2 CPIs (1st and 2nd choice) that described
personalities closest to the personality indicated by the natal chart. The
astrologers also rated the CPIs for closeness of fit to the natal chart
descriptions. Results indicate that Ss and astrologers scored at a level
consistent with chance. The data support arguments against natal astrology
as practiced by astrologers.
看到这里，你还会相信星座么？
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2006-12-07 03:45 PM 发表 | 举报这个帖子 | 
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