ASWECAN - 向星座论开炮！鄙视一切星座论！

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由 Willy 于 2006-12-07 03:45 PM 发表:

向星座论开炮！鄙视一切星座论！

本文是转载的。主要分两部分，第一部分Forer Effect，讲的是只要个性分析足够general，包括足够多的好话，大家总觉得是很精确得描述了自己，事实上大家拿到的都是同样的分析。

第二部分是1985年发表于Nature杂志的文章（世界上最权威的科学期刊之一），对星座论进行了双盲测试，测试结果表明，即使是“星座学家”，根据每个人的标准个性测试来判断星座，成功率和随机选择的概率是基本吻合的。（也就是看个性判断星座，和瞎猜，成功率基本一致）

***************转载开始***********************

几年前我是一个笃信星座的人，跟陌生人见面，头两句话里就会问：你是什么星座的？
找男朋友也是非水相星座的不考虑。直到有一天接触Forer Effect (Barnum Effect)，
才重新审视我信奉了颇久的星相。以下是转自wiki的内容：
Forer's demonstration

In 1948, psychologist Bertram R. Forer gave a personality test to his
students, and then gave them a personality analysis supposedly based on the
test's results. He invited each of them to rate the analysis on a scale of 0
(very poor) to 5 (excellent) as it applied to themselves: the average was 4
.26. He then revealed that each student had been given the same analysis:

Forer effect
You have a need for other people to like and admire you, and yet you
tend to be critical of yourself. While you have some personality weaknesses
you are generally able to compensate for them. You have considerable unused
capacity that you have not turned to your advantage. Disciplined and self-
controlled on the outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure on the
inside. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the
right decision or done the right thing. You prefer a certain amount of
change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions
and limitations. You also pride yourself as an independent thinker; and do
not accept others' statements without satisfactory proof. But you have found
it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. At times you are
extroverted, affable, and sociable, while at other times you are
introverted, wary, and reserved. Some of your aspirations tend to be rather
unrealistic.

Forer effect

Forer had assembled this text from horoscopes.

你看看上面的描述是不是很像你自己呢？Forer Effect 是指人们倾向于相信别人对自
己性格的模糊的分析。比如说，说一些大家都爱听的话：你很忠诚，重感情。或者说一
些模棱两可的话：你有时候比较喜欢自我空间，有时候又喜欢呼朋唤友。又或者说一些
大部分人都有的特点：你喜欢思考问题。

以下是一篇Nature文章的abstract，对星座准确性的测试：

TITLE: A double-blind test of astrology. PUBLICATION YEAR: 1985 LANGUAGE:
English AUTHOR: Carlson,-Shawn AUTHOR AFFILIATION: Carlson, Shawn: Lawrence
Berkeley Labs, Berkeley, CA SOURCE: Nature-. Vol 318(6045) Dec 1985, 419-425
. PUBLISHER: United Kingdom: Nature Publishing Group URL-PUBLISHER: http://www.nature.com/ ISSN (PRINT VERSION): 0028-0836 PUBLICATION TYPE: Journal; Peer-Reviewed-Journal

ABSTRACT: Tested the accuracy of astrological natal charts in describing the
personality traits of 193 Ss (aged 17+ yrs). In Exp I, Ss provided
information from which their natal charts and interpretations were
constructed by astrologers. Each S then attempted to select his/her own
natal chart interpretation from a group consisting of his/her own and 2
others. In Exp II, the astrologers were separately given the natal chart of
a random S and a California Psychological Inventory (CPI) description of the
S's personality traits along with CPI descriptions of 2 other Ss. The
astrologers selected the 2 CPIs (1st and 2nd choice) that described
personalities closest to the personality indicated by the natal chart. The
astrologers also rated the CPIs for closeness of fit to the natal chart
descriptions. Results indicate that Ss and astrologers scored at a level
consistent with chance. The data support arguments against natal astrology
as practiced by astrologers.

看到这里，你还会相信星座么？

__________________
别打我

拥护八荣八耻，鄙视星座论

由 Jae 于 2006-12-07 10:42 PM 发表:

用科學理性反迷信，但是人們需要迷信，如果不能解決爲什麽人們需要迷信這一點，而只告訴他們迷信是錯的，效果還是有限滴。

不過還是支持willy鄙視星座論~
多年前我就被批判過了。。。因此更記住了你是金牛座~哈哈哈

__________________
伏请世尊为证明五浊恶世誓先入　　
如一众生未成佛终不于此取泥洹

由 Willy 于 2006-12-08 01:42 AM 发表:

鄙视星座论是我的业余爱好，治标就可以了，不用治本。

__________________
别打我

拥护八荣八耻，鄙视星座论

由贪心于 2006-12-08 03:04 AM 发表:

我在星座论对我有利的时候是支持大

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在我们发情的时候
别把我们当人

由水美泠于 2006-12-08 12:02 PM 发表:

精神力量

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幽默是最招人喜欢的~~

由 Somy 于 2006-12-08 04:30 PM 发表:

星座论就像耶稣一样是信仰……

由 Fd-Wowmy-Memory 于 2006-12-08 08:26 PM 发表:

不过是stochastic而已.我也不信

由 Jae 于 2006-12-09 04:25 PM 发表:

如此看来，willy已经得道了。。
星座论向来是跟理性精神对着干的。。。
希腊化时期没把它搞定
中世纪又借基督教复兴。。。
现在已经有道教化倾向了哈哈哈

__________________
伏请世尊为证明五浊恶世誓先入　　
如一众生未成佛终不于此取泥洹

由 MusicBridge 于 2006-12-14 04:51 PM 发表:

我信的……并且我觉得星座的描述从来就不“模棱两可”

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团结勤奋严肃活泼

由 Willy 于 2006-12-15 01:08 AM 发表:

楼上仔细看看我转的第二个例子。

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别打我

拥护八荣八耻，鄙视星座论

由小村村于 2006-12-25 02:28 AM 发表:

爱因斯坦说过一段……关于提倡星座信仰的小名言

偶是客观唯心论者……

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蓝色的头像，清澈的可以倒映出忧伤

所有时间均为北京时间现在时间 05:53 AM